tv Fast Money CNBC March 28, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
particular. >> that will do it for the closing bell. hope you will follow me on twitter. first fast money begins right now. >> i'm melissa lee and we have the top three trades. trading three stocks for the people tutting back on the holding. banking on bonds. we are talking to the money manager and where you can better in terms of the yield. buy or rent? not a house, but construction equipment. the ceo joins us for an interview and his stock is booming. this is fast money. we have to start with the headlines and apple where we are hitting a new record high. they are selling the shares and cashing out on restricted stock.
apple is not the only one sell thing their stakes. the common thread is that all the stocks are at or close to highs. >> the song life has been good to me so far by joe walsh playing as we came in. we have apple there. >> as much as it was good for me to note, everything on the show is done for a reason, even the music. >> exactly. exactly. in addition apple, take a look at the gap. the gap close to highs. also selling and priceline. near an all time high at today's session and seeing a lot of selling in terms of executives there. there caveats. >> usually you see company executives do these at regular intervals to not get in trouble
with the sales or news releases and things like that. given how much the stocks have gone up it is prudent to diversify a little bit. >> i'm shocked there would be this much insider selling. i am bringing up the numbers and when you see them reduce their positions, that's probably not a timed circumstance. >> why not. it is all based on selling more than 30% of the state. the ceo of priceline. 30% sale. if i'm in priceline stock, the ceo is getting out by 30%. he must know something i do not know. >> maybe the ceo does and maybe they don't.
it has been nothing but praising don johnson. he has converting jcpenney into the greatest retailer ever. ron johnson sold 150,000 shares of apple stock. at about 300 and something a share. it was a high at the time and it doubled. when you look at arthur at apple and the names and you start to see where they sold in the past, you can argue wow, this is something that is shocking to me. i have to get nervous. i am looking at arthur levinson and he sold $262 and $252 and 45,000 or 30,000 shares and he continues to go on and on. they are not trying to pick it and i don't think that's the reason they are taking it away. >> when you sell 30% of holdings, you could be getting divorced and estate planning could be taking place and a lot of things can happen and you can be worried about the stock. >> for every instance, they make
a lot of good points. the rule ors are glaring. you have to be concerned that they had a rip here to date. however you want to slice it. this company is growing despite the fact that it trades. i don't think these guys are traders. 10,000 square feets on to their home. i don't think it is necessarily as active. we said on the show all the time, the best scenario and the thing you can always feel good about is when they are buying stock. i think for us to make it not entirely fair. it is interesting to the best performance and say it's not a bad thing to take chips off the table. >> when you look at tim cook and
you say how did he time this out? it was a plan, but secondly these were options he exercised and used most of those options or a big chunk to pay off the taxes and the rest were on sale. when you look at what tim cook did, he waited until the last day. these options became vested on the 24th of march. that's when he converted and sold at $600. he didn't top it either. >> i wanted to clarify. north american travel at priceline, but that is one of the biggest parts of the business. he has the pulse on a very big chunk of the business. let's talk about the stocks. these are all caveats in general and you are looking at insider selling. when it comes to these stocks, if priceline is a lot of bullish analysts, piper jaffray for one and last week's stock was destined for 1,000 in 24 months. a lot of bullishness in the stocks and hold on because 1,000
is in the cards. maybe the hopes for emerging markets penetration may not come to fruition. >> with respect to apple as a hedge fund manager, 1650 a share and by the end of 2015. we said a couple of weeks ago, even with apple, you want to play with house money and book profits. maybe you will let your chips ride with capital that is not your own. >> it's more of a statement where the market has been. a lot of these companies, if you look at where technology has been, tech has been carrying the rally and when the s&p suffered the second straight down day that seems like an amazing feat, it didn't have apple that went to another high. ibm is not far off. the leaderboard which has been five or six stocks. i would be curious to see them fall.
he gets back to priceline and streets around 725 on the stock. i think it's a great place to be taking chips off the table. on a technical basis, you have an 80. i would not feel the need to own the stock. i believe in the growth in emerging market accident, but i would be in with the ceo. >> bringing in internet analyst who covers priceline and will get to the call on google to 750. it's great to have you with us. in terms of priceline for one, we showed a screen of insider selling and specifically the ceo of north america. they sold about 32% of his shares, is that something should be alarmed about? >> it's probably not a red flag, but comes up as a yellow and orange and it's systematic with a group of executives. we look at valuation and fundamentals. $42 and earnings and we are well above the streak and it's
trading nicely below 20 times earnings. in fact it's still the number one pick in the space. >> all time highs and you think it's a safe long? >> yeah. i'm not going to flinch from that and look at it on valuation. this is a 30% agreer. we could have had the same argument at 650 and 550. look at it relative to earnings and the secretary growth story. >> switching over to google, you had a bold call as 750. they search still at 6% and it's the local search where they dominate with 90 plus%. isn't there an issue that we would start to see some of that start to come back down or do they own the search area forever. >> shoot. they owned the search area and that's a good point.
they owned it for the next ten years. they have seen a lot of competition in the past. they saw this tsunami or whatever the word is. that transition they well ahead of. it's hard to see them taking share from them and the display is showing and they got close to 20%. they were zero a few years ago. across internet advertising and this company is well-positioned. >> let's talk about the ecosystem with android. google play is really again helping them counter the position that it looks like apple has in terms of the diversified with the hardware and the apple software system. what do you think about google play as a game changer and again this is cloud access for consumers through media to music to everything they want to consume and maybe a game-changer for these guys. >> we will be skeptical like we have been skeptical on google plus.
consumers have clear options of where they go to get media online. there is apple and amazon and netflix and a series of companies. it's hard for them to come in. we don't know how much they will put behind google play. it's an interesting offering. at this stage in the game, is it differentiated enough to attract consumers to go there. don't buy google for google plus or google play. >> i want you to go on rumor patrol and google tablet that has been in the mill lately. what's the forecast for that? >> we have seen what we call a hardwareification on the internet. now it's clear that google is too. the rational for amazon is clear given the media that we retailed in the past that are going digital. the play for google is unclear too. they forked out $12 million and anything is on the table. i don't have a lot of hopes for google and i find it an odd move
as we fond the motorola deal. >> i want to go to your call, nowhere in the note was the mention of a possible dividend. google was mentioned after the mobility purchase of about $3.5 million in cash although they throw off a lot. does that mean it's off the table in your view? >> i think it is. i don't think this company has half the cash level and it will be 40% of apple. they still view themselves probably deep in growth mote and investment mode. this should pay a dividend, but i would be shocked if it was this year. >> great to speak with you. mark from city, if you don't want to get your thoughts on google to 750 specifically. >> you look at google and you start to look at apple. i know they are different, but someone who owns the space.
particularly in the mobile search. to mark's point, do i see plenty of upside and wonder if they paid far too much in the deal and at some point we have to find out how well that will work out. that money is spent and they will do something from the mobile side and the tablets. >> did you address him as peter? >> very formal. >> i want to keep you guys on your toes. >> i bet when we are in trouble. kind of like how my mom did. >> not only bullish on prices, but these levels might go. priceline is a save long. you are looking at the trade on priceline? >> i think the perspective about whether or not something is a safe long here is going to depend a little bit on the view of whether or not the market is due for a little bit of a pull back. it will be the names that let it up that are likely to lead it down on a pull back. i will agree with this that if
it's growing at 35% a year and i understand the estimates are above the street, but even the street estimates if they were to realize and probably have the stock reasonably valued, it's just one of the beta spaces where if you are concerned about the pull back and the put open interest has been rising. all of those to me say how could you be foolish taking it off the table? the way i was looking at it, you could spend about $20 on these things. you realize that this is an over $7 stock. you look to spread a stock and you wanted to stick with the short. >> more "options action" and follow the show on twitter to get concentrated updates. i want to move on to materials and down greating a short-term on commodities from overweight to neutral saying they settled into the doldrums. it maintains long
recommendations in gold and crude. gold could go down to 1800 at this point. >> why not? >> it's 16 now. it's been there before. we shouldn't be surprised by this. i was taken back by the fact that we said we are out for the short-term and bullish for the long time. isn't that nice? that's a nice position to have. you get it to win in both directions. if you look at what's happening in commodities, it's an important day and you pull a rug out. they changed everybody's psychology and not a good day for me. i came in long on the gold and materials. they pulled the rug out. i have to tell you, i threw a lot of stuff overboard. we will see what happens in the summer. >> no one has a better front row seat than you. the durables were not that awful. is this the building momentum of the china rebalancing act that includes a massive flood of
liquidity? we started to see that liquidity conditions have tightened, but i don't think the u.s. has fallen off that much. >> it wasn't the durables number and it wasn't the front page that was discouraging, but inventories built to a 26-mojt high and that got them excite and depressed. that made everybody say wait a minute. inventories are that long and buying has to be halted. that was the turning point. we saw that number, things changed. >> have to take a break. the rental economy is one of this year's hot stocks up 800% in three years. next with the plan to keep the price climbing. [ artis brown ] america is facing some tough challenges right now.
two of the most important are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands. this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands
with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.
>> welcome back. the economic downturn has been difficult for the construction business overall. they benefitted as construction companies decided to rent instead of buy. they were back 42% this year alone. on a fast exclusive, it's great to have you here on set. >> i appreciate it. >> the core is nonresidential construction. you say that 2012 will be the first in three years that will see year on year increases. how far out in terms of visibility do you have? when ben bernanke was here he made it seem like he was unsure. >> great question. we do look at about one year out, but i can tell you that global insight and the services used is predicting a 12% growth over five years. >> 12% annual growth rate. are there a certain kind of rental that make you feel more
sure about the recovery of bigger ticket items or maybe smaller ticket items? how do you interpret the mix of what you rent and when it's rented into what you see for the economy? >> larger and expensive equipment that you not only have to maintain and utilize it over the life cycle, those assets with the large equipment and earth-moving equipment and assets that you think are large and expensive are some of the biggest we rent. >> with respect to the view, there seems to be an undercurrent and the ceo on yesterday who said residential looks better than most people realize. when you flip to the commercial side, is it strength or selective? >> there is always going to be pockets. california and florida that suffered deeply in the recession is taking a while to come back. having said that, there is pockets of industry and we are seeing a resurgence of industry
coming in, particularly foreign investment. car manufacturing and production coming back into the u.s. >> you see a lot of that? that has been a court thesis that we have been talking about. u.s. manufacturing getting market share back from places like china. >> we are seeing that particularly in the midwest down through the west and also down through the gulf area. >> is the rental business really a better business in tough times? when the economy turns better, do people tend to buy as opposed to rent it? >> the reality is typically what happens is during the down market, you see a resurgence of people moveing for owning to renting. when it gets strong, that plateaus. it doesn't go away. if you look at the penetration levels, it's 5% and today is around 40%. you compare that to the uk and japan. in terms of selling used
equipment, the manufacturers like the caterpillar will point to prices in the used equipment market say they are strong and that's good for us. >> that's exactly right. from 2009, used prices increase year over year. that's healthy for our industry in particular. >> how is the acquisition going. you floated out money and all the rest of it, how is that going as far as the progress? >> when you take a look at both companies and the cultures are align and great cooperation from the management and we had some of the management team willing to join going forward. we are very excite and making a lot of progress. >> you still see $200 million upon the completion of the deal. >> at least 200. >> at least. are you any more optimistic as you approach the vote on april 27th? >> again, we said at least 200 million and we haven't talked
about the synergies we haven't talked about that we are looking forward as the opportunities to cross sell our products with their type of customers and vice-versa. >> you are taking out the biggest competitor to you. who else is left after that? >> there companies such as hertz and sunbelt. they are viable competitors in the market place. >> they have a great read through for you guys. january is a slow month. can you give us a sense of telling us about guides and how has the been? >> i can tell you that we will see pricing up about 5% and we are going to see the timing and assets out there up about a half point. we still see that as we are going to make that. it's out there and strong. we are going to be spending about a billion of assets bringing in our fleet. we are optimistic.
>> hope to see you again. the ceo of the united rentals, one of the hot stops and 42%. next on fast money, under the radar investment that one said is better than high yield bonds. up next, we reveal what it is. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend.
i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. cannot be contained. [ clang ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. the sleep number bed. the magic of this bed is that you're sleeping on something that conforms to your individual shape. wow! that feels really good. it's hugging my body. in less than a minute i can get more support. if you change your mind once you get home you can adjust it. so whatever you feel like, the sleep number bed's going to provide it for you. at our semi-annual sleep sale, save $400 to $700 on our most popular bed sets. sale ends march 31st. only at the sleep number store, where queen mattresses start at just $699.
imax now showing on the big board. >> live in time square and want to hit on after hours options. popping in the after hours and topping estimates by two cents up per share. strong demand for data storage products. remember they acquired cluster and that is adding on the revenue side and we will see a big pop in n that stock and taking a look at shares of mosaic.
it is lower. head wind currencies, i know you got hopped up. he bought potash. >> expected it to be better. they were low and got lower after they got out there and produced some of the numbers. the numbers were awful and when you look at the potash production, that's another area where they are having problems. when you look at the numbers, a lot of reasons why you should have your hand on some of them. longer term, that's what they brought up. longer term, things are and short-term they face the head winds. >> they are saying on the tape this is due to transient events and the third quarter is not going to be the fourth quarter again. this is the fiscal third. they are saying north american dealers will be increasing purchases. the whole industry was waiting for china to do a settlement with the russians.
potash is an oligopoly and you need to settle down the rest of the sector. i think this is a great company. it's a terrible stock to own for the last 15 months. i love ag, but we haven't played this name. others have been disappointeding and i think it's there. >> the size of the crops will be stunning. we will see the numbers on friday. looking at potash and mosaic, on these numbers, i'm with you. i don't like to buy this kind of weakness. >> what does that say about the ag prices that are going through the roof? >> they will plant a lot. it's going to be huge crops. what does it say for production? big numbers coming up. the problem is other countries have very, very reduced production. it's an offset. >> la nina down south. >> exactly. we don't know how bad the crop will be and it will be offset by what we are doing.
>> we want to hit unusual activity. we cite a lot and it's in groupon. >> you are talking about a stock that has been in an ugly range. it is a lot lower and you are closer towards the low end. when you look and you see the calls bought and pretty good size, about 4,000 contracts trading there and financing some of that by selling the downside, people are not expecting to see the stock get hit too much further. expecting to see over the next six or week that is the stock could be above 21 or 22. >> you also notice this activity. >> we saw the october trade where they were selling the downside puts. that's another example of bullish activity and that is unusual when you see the stocks that are trading in such a weak range. >> let's move on and hit fast money portfolio. a new feature where they meet the volatility of the world.
highland capital management where you get more bang for your buck rather than high yield bonds. great to have you with us. i think a lot of investors would lament their options and they haven't returned to stock funds. we have seen that in the inflows and they have been putting the money into bond funds and that's not doing much good either. where are you seeing the best in the bond side? >> my view is that bank debt will outperform bonds for the remainder of the year. it's a great time to take gapes in high yield bonds and rotate that capital into the loans. high yield bonds have been a traded asset class and come in and go out based on investor sentiment. the market is about at the peak and a good time to take the gains. where you put the money, we like the asset class for a much more stable and defensive class, but
we have upside potential. smarter investors and trade the high yield bond class and invest in the loans. i can give you good reasons why. >> before you do that, let me ask you how individuals access that. you can get into hedge funds, but you have to be a falified purchaser. the bank loans are more sophisticated. >> you are right and you have mutual funds and close end funds in the space. they are trying to find a manager that specializes in the bank loans as opposed to a manager who is dabbling in the space. let me give you real reasons. there three. number one, performance and fundamentals. we had a great start to the year. up 5% for the year. loans up 3 1/2. that's a great start. you look at the average high
yield bond and trading at a premium, a yield with the low sevens. the yield is closer about 6%. in fact 35% of high yield bonds are trading at or above their call price. there is not a lot of meat left on the bones because you are capped at the upside. that's not the case for loans. you are trading at a discount and you have that nice upside potential in the space. >> what do rising rates do? eventually rates will rise. what do they do for you? >> exactly. they would be good for bank debt and bad for bonds. bonds are fixed. you talk about the technicals and they said that we have already had as much inflow in a high yield bond in the first three months of the year as all last year. bank debts haven't seen any at all this year. when you think about hot money
coming in, you can go out just as fast. last year we saw this happen and it's something you have to be concerned with. what's the return profile? >> i think bank bonds are pretty much capping to see what they want to do in this from that point. >> thanks for your time. from highland capital, pipeline stocks and the short interest. we are trading them and why the next couple of days could make or break the obesity drugmakers. all that straight ahead. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom.
and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ this is $100,000. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.
high level of short interest. >> the 50-day moving averages have a short interest greater than 10%. sears has been on that list for sometime, but lennar, we new a lot of them were seeing the big runs and shorting them. does that this cause you to think they could be higher? >> since october, i have been advocating getting back into the home builders. it went down and tested their lows and most likely at a secular bottom in housing prices and i don't think you should be trying to short them. it looks to me they are going up. it's not a trade, but an investment. >> you have been looking at amd. >> you look at the tech names and you look to intel and some of the names. the fact that they are short doesn't surprise you, but it's
moving up despite the fact that the numbers are not fantastic. it seems like it is moving up with a sentiment attached to the rest of the chips. i would stay away. >> obviously when you take a look at this information, this could be just one side of the trades in the options market. what have you been noticing in terms of activity on these shares? >> when you look at the short interest, if there is a lot of open interest in options, why is that? two of the most common trades is selling calls against long stocks or buying puts to hedge themselves. the dealers need to sell stock against those purchases. what you want to see is, is this short interest on their own or can we find another reason why it might be out there. we don't see the open interest in the options that suggest that this is a natural hedges short interest and it is out right
short bets. >> good to keep in mind. we will continue to get short, but hopefully not with that horrendous music. one can hope. we will look at other stocks, specifically small and mid-cap names. high flyers with high short interest. >> and randy newman music. >> traders with drugmakers as an fda panel considers whether heart safety panels should be required. >> i sure have. it's interesting that tomorrow a panel will consider more hurdles for the obesity drugs to clear. the update is saying they have to decide whether the study should be conducted before or after these drugs are approved. if the panel recommends testing before drug approval, we could see a major sell off with some obesity drugmakers. if it comes after the drugs are
approved, we may see only some profit-taking. they are up 100% and boosted by the panel voting in favor of the anti-obesity drug and providing a lift while the gains are significant. they said shares could drop up to 50% if this ruling by the fda delays the drug launch. the bottom line is the launch could be a huge market mover for the anti-obesity pills. >> a huge move. >> i didn't even realize. my bed is the number one. >> you didn't learn from president obama on that one? you are looking at a straddle here. 50% of the stock price. that is an extraordinary number
saying that the market is saying that it's poised to move. >> this expires three weeks from now. people are expecting like you said, either it's up or down and it will be a move that is massive. >> binary for these types of companies. >> tomorrow later in the day around eastern standard time. >> coming up next, what potential surprises could be lurking for positions tonight. more fast money coming up next. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want
when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. here's a chance to create jobs in america. oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now.
[ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. >> welcome become to fast money. in times square, the fourth quarter earnings tomorrow before the bell after disappointing sales figures. our next guest has bleak predictions for the retailer. managing director of equity research at web bush securities. great to have you with us. it is a slow bleed at best buy. how long does this bleed happen?
what is the time frame? >> it's a great question. more than a drip. the patient will be on life support in three or four years. they are not going to die this quarter. they are losing shares of online retail and although people said that was a big problem, smart phones made the big problem right now. you have pretty much everybody under 30 that is aspirational who either has a smart phone or wants one. they have the internet in their hands and an ap called red lazer and bar code scan and comparison shop and use best buy as a show room and make the order right there. >> that's how i bought two of my televisions in my home. in terms of the forecast, look at the estimates and where they compare to the street. they are almost in line and a little bit below. you they best buy will lose 15% of the sales. that is a problem. is the loss in sales over a
broader time period than the quarter they will report? >> it will take probably three years for them to decline by that much. there is a lost noise this quarter because of the car phone warehouse deal. they are generating about a $2 billion loss that they are adding back for pro forma purposes. they can monkey around with expenses and shifting fiscal year from february and to january year end. we will have noise into next year. the number that your viewers should focus on is revenues and the comps and the margin. we will see comps down and margin contract. if they are down year over year, that is not a good sign that needs to promote the products and cut price to keep up sales. >> does this mean best buyy is the borders of consumer electronics? >> not as rapid because you can buy everything that borders sold and it's hard to download a
television set, but you had a lower cost offering the same commodity at a lower and more convenient delivery. i would say it will be a slow bleed. >> you say that game stock could benefit and some may argue that game stock will be the way of the dinosaurs and you can buy everything online like amazon and trade games at this point on services like amazon. >> to ron's point, that's the real thesis on game stop. everybody will download games and you can't yet do that. it's kind of a game because they like to get it the day it came out and they do about 50% share of sales about every game. people are not getting it immediately on amazon and the
trade in proposition, you don't know what the game is worth. you have to wait before they get it. with game stock, you get immediate gratification. they pick up shares because best buy has about 15% market share as they contract that share that goes to game stop. >> real quick, this is a three-year slow bleed as far as best buy. is there anything you should be doing that they are not doing or is this a business that is lost and getting themselves more involved and that is not the savior for them at this point. >> they don't have the brand on the internet and they have no mind share. what they should have done is maybe four or five years ago started to downsize. the stores are too big. the center of the store is irrelevant. what they should have focused on is higher margin and high value products so tablets may not be high margin, but they are expensive. tvs and net books and phones and
gone to a small formal store. the best buy mobile should be portable. they could have done really well on the name and had a couple of employees for stores that are 40. 2500 square feet instead of 45,000. that would have prolonged the inevitable. it's inevitable that they will go away. thank you very much for your time. woulda coulda shoulda. it may be too late. >> you may find them in the fake leather couches in best buy right now. >> hanging out there and playing games. wii. >> we talked about this and the category killers like all these big guys that drove out mom and pop shops that are driven out by the internet and happening far faster than what when they did it themselves. >> we are trading your tweets next. is now within your grasp with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard.
e-trade 360 is the world's first investing homepage that shows you where all your investments are and what they're doing with free streaming quotes, news, analysis and even your trade ticket. everything exactly the way you want it, all on one page. transform your investing with the all-new e-trade 360 investing dashboard. is moving backward. [ engine turns over, tires squeal ] introducing the lexus enform app suite -- available now on the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. there's no going back. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪
trade your tweets and the kid asks us. the other kid. is anyone buying the chemicals on this plunger or other beneficiaries are falling in that gas. theoretically this could be good for them. >> there is no theory to them. this is beneficial to the chemical companies and beneficial to the fertilizers. that guess will probably head lower. we might see a big figure. >> would you buy it? >> yeah. >> i have an old rule that you always play the obscene number. one is probably obscene. i wouldn't be prized if we put one up there. >> at this point there has to be more production cuts i would think. >> one would think, but the production that is there, the wells that have been drilled, they will work to make sure. i don't think will see as much cutting as you think.
>> jason asked seymore, are you adding? timothy, what do you tell jason. >> you know, it's nor eastern. >> maybe i'm bitter about the position. four times the ebitda and the yield, the best copper producer in the world got through a difficult strike that is pushing down the shares. you can't fall in love with this forever. stop yourself at 36. i would be adding to weakness and we have been in the stock on the way down. you have to run a little bit of slack on your stops. this is a great company and i don't believe that the world is dead and therefore this is a company i want to own. >> looking at the chart, if that comes back up to 42, isn't it better going down rather than trying to grab the knife.
we are value investors and at these levels once you see it pass through a couple of levels, it looks like knife territory possibly. >> as we head to break, news about beyonce. a puppy from beyonce. the dachshund mix born two weeks ago weighing one ounce is on track to be the world's smallest dog. beyonce was giving it mouth to mouth after failing to breathe on her own, but she is likely to keep on surviving. is beyonce on an iphone? it's so you can understand the scale of beyonce. >> it looks like a mouse. >> a dirty mouse. nice. >> i'm sorry. i don't think that's all cute and stuff. the golden retriever puppy is cute. [ donovan ] i hit a wall.
and i thought "i can't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment. when i decided to find a way to keep going. go for olympic gold and go to college too. [ male announcer ] every day we help students earn their bachelor's or master's degree for tomorrow's careers. this is your moment. let nothing stand in your way. devry university, proud to support the education of our u.s. olympic team. laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] get the mileage card with special perks on united, like a free checked bag, i have club passes. united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks.
♪ okay. what's your secret? [ male announcer ] the united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in. i don't know... i forget. hello, neighbors. hey, scott... perfect timing. feeding your lawn need not be so difficult. get a load of this bad boy. sweet! this snap spreader system from scotts makes caring for your lawn snap-crackin' simple, guaranteed. just take the handy, no-mess bag, then snap, lock, and go. it's a new day for lawn care, feedings never been so easy. to see a demo of the snap spreader, go to scotts.com. feed your lawn. feed it!